With the Prime Minister looking seriously hobbled, it seems to be only a matter of 'when', not 'if', she loses her job.

But there are a number of factors keeping her in Number 10:

  1. No-one wants the job... at the moment - a direct challenge could cost the challenger dearly. Whilst the party may want her gone, the one wielding the knife may not be rewarded with the top job. See M. Heseltine...
  2. The process of a leadership election - could take several months that few seem willing or able to do.
  3. The danger of a coronation - if there is only one contender then it will be a coronation but that is what happened with Mrs May. The public may rightly call for another General Election if the party again doesn't even give itself a choice of leader.
  4. The EU discussions - should be dominating everything else and a lengthy leadership contest will be portrayed as the Conservative Party thinking about itself, rather than the country. A new leader could also mean a change of approach to the negotiations which, by that time, would be running out of time.
  5. The appeal of Jeremy Corbyn - the Conservative Party is like a rabbit frozen in the headlights of Corbyn's oncoming nationalisation juggernaut. They know they need to move but don't seem capable. The policy announcements made at the conference seemed Corbyn-lite.
  6. What another General Election may deliver - the biggest fear is that the party may be forced into another early election and it is one that they could well lose. The last election was thought to be a walk in the park and one designed to consign the Labour Party to the dustbin of history. Well that didn't quite happen and next time they know there will be a real fight.


These points are not necessarily mutually exclusive but help to explain why Mrs May remains in post.